ASSURED GUARANTY FAMILY OF COMPANIES AGO ASSURED GUARANTY CORP. I ASSURED GUARANTY MUNICIPAL I ASSURED GUARANTY RE NYSE
FIXED INCOME/REAL ESTATE CL) already checked. Then tab in to the CAPRATE field and enter 10 to assume future investors will require a 10 percent capitalization rate, which is higher than the hotel’s implied 7.37 percent rate in 2007 when the loan was completed.
To input assumptions about net operating income, click on Growth% so that a pop-up window appears. Through October, average revenue per available room was down 19 percent at Boston-area hotels in 2009, according to research firm Smith Travel Research Inc. Based on net operating income derived from 2008 year-end revenue and expenses, the most recent full-year figures reported for the Boston Marriott, let’s assume that annual’ ized net operating income at the upscale hotel declines by 29 percent during the 12 months starting in January, then grows by 2 percent for the next 12 months during a potential rebound in 2011 and finally by 3 percent in 2012 and beyond. To apply these projections for net operating income, enter A01/01/2010 -29 125 2 125 3. Type <Go> 1 <Go> to accept.
NEXT, TO CALCULATE loss severity based on the projected future property value at the time of default resolution, click on the box to the left of Recovery if it isn’t already checked. Then click on the arrow to the right of Mode and select Property Dispose. Finally, to assume principal and interest payments aren’t advanced by the servicer after default, click on the arrow below Adv in the lower-right corner of the screen and select No. To store this scenario, click on the Save As button at the bottom of the screen; enter a name, such as SCENARIO A, in the field; and click on Save.
CASH FLOW CALCULATOR
Click on Cashflows to view projected cash flow, debt service and loss data for one of the payday loans based on the assumptions you’ve chosen.
Loan, click on Attach to Loan(s) and then click on the box to the left of the loan name. To run your scenario and view the resulting cash flows, click on Cash flows.
Based on the scenario’s projections, net operating income would fail to cover at least 1.1 times the required loan debt service by November 2010, when the loan would be assumed to be in default. Use the scroll bar at the bottom of the screen to view the DSCR column. The expected loss is $65.2 million, based on the property’s projected value of $110.8 million in May 2012,18 months after the default date, using the capitalization rate of 10 percent. Use the scroll bars at the right and bottom of the screen to view the loss data.
To calculate recovery value based on a reappraisal or on a per-room basis, presses <Menu> to return to the main Loan Manager Page and click on the circle to the left of Loss Estimator Mode. Click on the box to the left of the Boston Marriott so that a check mark appears, if it isn’t already checked.
To run a scenario under which the Boston Marriott was valued at $227,000 per hotel room—the price that the Hyatt Regency Boston sold for in February 2009—click on the arrow to the right of ARA Loss Estimator and choose Calculate Property Value by Unit Size. Tab in to the PRICE/UNIT field and enter 227000. Tab in to the SIZE/Num UNITS field and enter 402, which is the number of rooms at the Boston Marriott. Tab in to the P&I ADVANCE field and enter 14800000 to assume the servicer advances principal and interest for 18 months, an amount equal to about $14.8 million, and press <Go>. Click on the Cale Loss button to calculate the loss, which in this case would be $108.7 million, or 62 percent of the principal balance outstanding of the Boston Marriott loan.